by Mack Williams
16 May 2016
I. Feel The Bern
This piece touting the electability of Bernie Sanders as a third-party candidate sounds great, but it fails to take into account the fact that the entire electorate will not view the three candidates as having a relatively equivalent path to victory. In other words, a certain percentage of the population may wind up believing that a third-party candidate cannot win in this system, and therefore will not ultimately consider him for their vote.
Another thing is that the kitchen sink and all other appliances have been thrown at Hillary Clinton through the years, and she remains standing. The likelihood of further damaging info on her emerging is not that high…but Sanders has not been grilled in that manner, neither during his Senate career nor on the presidential campaign trail. What would the effect of such heightened scrutiny be? My sense is that his support could drop as a result, which would definitely alter these projections.
II. Doing The Math
Back to a prospective two-candidate race, a look at the maps and a look at the demographics demonstrate the problems Donald Trump will face in the fall. Will he be able to flip enough states won by President Obama to get to 270 electoral votes? My guess is absolutely no way.
For instance, Trump wins if he flips OH, PA, and FL, and wins everything Mitt Romney won in 2012. Simple enough? Maybe not…in part because states like OH and PA have major urban centers of such size that any Republican is facing an uphill climb in an attempt to come out victorious in the state. Another reason why is:
Donald Trump. For a guy who has the “best words,” his words and tweets certainly create a lot of trouble.
Bottom line: if Trump only gets <10% of the Latino vote, 5-10% of the African-American vote, and <40% of women’s votes, there aren’t enough crazy wall-building, Muslim-banning voters left for him to win.
III. Ted Cruz
I am so mad at Ted Cruz (and then, subsequently, John Kasich) for bowing out of the race, because I was SO looking forward to a contested Republican convention thrown into a M frenzy when Trump failed to come up with the number of delegates required for a first ballot victory. Would he pout? Would there be violence (as he implied)? Would Paul Ryan or Romney ride in on a white horse to save the day? Unfortunately, we’ll never have the benefit of such wonderful summer TV entertainment – and for that I’m mad at Cruz.
IV. Good Morning
I remember a corporate manager once telling me she didn’t want people to feel obligated to give several weeks notice prior to leaving; if you really want to leave, leave now. I guess that’s where Michael Strahan got to be with “Live” – but here’s my question: Was Kelly Ripa madder because no one told her Michael was leaving until just before the news broke, or because she wasn’t the one that got called up to the big show?
V. Spurs and Warriors
With all the talk about the aging of the Spurs classic Big 3, and how they were unable to withstand the younger Thunder, if Patty Mills had hit his corner jumper in the closing seconds of game 2 following that crazy inbounds pass, the series would have been tied at three games apiece heading into a game 7 in San Antonio which many people would have expected them to win.
As much as I was hoping for a Spurs-Warriors matchup, one thing remains the same: both of these teams had historic regular seasons, yet all is virtually for naught without the Larry O’Brien trophy on top.
VI. Old Man River
People refer to Tim Duncan as Old Man Riverwalk, but the real Old Man River – he just keeps rolling along – is the 42-year-old behind the back flipping, home run hitting (and still good pitching) co-player of the week, Bartolo Colon.
VII. Guns again…
Excerpts of an article by Christopher Ingraham. Time after time…