by Mack Williams
4 November 2012
On Tuesday night, like most everyone else, you’ll be watching the election returns, snacking on chicken wings or whatever, and drinking your beverage of choice – but you may find yourself overwhelmed by all of the information being fed, especially if you are switching channels and getting different analysis. Not to fear – here is The SEVEN’s guide to Obama vs. Romney, by the numbers:
270 is the number of electoral votes the winning candidate will need, a majority of the total number of electoral votes, 538. In 2008 Barack Obama won with 365 electoral votes, a figure he will probably not duplicate this year due to the fact that he won some traditionally “red” states in 2008 that may return to their usual ways.
In 1992 President George H.W. Bush lost to his challenger, Bill Clinton, and it was the last time that an incumbent has lost. The previous time that that happened was in 1980, when President Jimmy Carter lost a three-way race to Ronald Reagan (with John Anderson as the third-party candidate)…and prior to that it last happened in 1932 (when FDR defeated President Herbert Hoover).
I don’t know just how scientific this is, but during this millennium, when a National League team has won the World Series, a Democrat wins the White House – and when a Republican wins the White House, an American League team has won the World Series. For instance, the National League’s Philadelphia Phillies won the 2008 Series, and Barack Obama won the presidency. In 2004 President George W. Bush won re-election, and the American League’s Boston Red Sox won the Series. The closely-contested 2000 election saw Bush come out on top, while the American League’s New York Yankees won the World Series. The last time this pattern did not hold true was in 1996, when President Bill Clinton won re-election over Bob Dole, but the Yankees won the Series.
This year, for those of you that are not baseball fans, the San Francisco Giants (of the National League) beat the Detroit Tigers, four games to none.
Four is the number of states – as far as we know – that Mitt Romney has a home in or has lived in for a considerable amount of time. Those states are Massachusetts, New Hampshire (where he has a vacation home), Michigan (where he was born and no one ever asked him for his birth certificate), and California (where he has a home). As per the current polling, Gov. Romney stands to lose them all.
V. 85.1, 98.2, & 47
85.1 and 98.2 are the current probability percentages of an Obama win, as per the New York Times mathematical polling guru Nate Silver and the Princeton Election Consortium. 47 is the percentage of people that Gov. Romney said pay no taxes and cannot be convinced to take personal responsibility and care for their lives, a statement which may very well be a contributing factor in those other percentages being as high as they are.
If, somewhere around 9:00-9:30 p.m. Eastern time, the commentators have projected President Obama with 174 electoral votes – and you have to be up really early Wednesday morning – go on to bed. Chances are the president will have another 98 electoral votes coming in from the western states whose polls will not have closed by then, which would give him 272 and the win.
To be specific regarding the “swing states” and the 174 point…let’s just say that Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado have not been determined yet. If President Obama wins one of the above states – all of which he leads in or is even with Governor Romney – he will return to the White House.
Enjoy the night and be sure to vote!